Eritrea Has A Problem With Djibouti
STRATEGY PAGE
The UN has –with good reason—focused on the Ethiopia-Eritrea border.
It's a "frozen war" that could reignite. But Eritrea's recent squabble with
Djibouti is another reminder that border disputes plague the Horn of
Africa and, for that matter, most of sub-Saharan Africa. Yemen and
Eritrea both claim the Hanish Islands in the Red Sea. The Hanish
Islands sit in the middle of a major sea lane. Various rebel groups and
Somali clans believe the entire Ogaden region should be part of
Somalia and Eritrea – in order to undermine Ethiopia—supports many of
these groups.
May 13, 2008: Eritrea said that the UN's contention that a complete
removal of peacekeeping and observation teams from the Ethiopia-
Eritrea border is "scaremongering." Eritrea believes the UN favors
Ethiopia in its border dispute.
May 9, 2008: Eritrea denied that it has any border disagreements with
Djibouti, after Djibouti claimed that Eritrea was massing troops along the
Djibouti-Eritrea border, near the village of Doumeira. Attacking Djibouti
would be a big mistake for Eritrea. Both the US and France have military
bases in Djibouti. While the garrisons are small, they can be quickly
reinforced. A fast, flawless Eritrean attack could conceivably take
control of the US and French installations, but executing such an
operation is a huge challenge for the best militaries. Eritrea is not in that
league, particularly when Djibouti's forces are already on alert. US and
French special operations troops in Djibouti, the French Foreign
Legion, US Marines, and US-French airpower compound the problems
an Eritrean offensive would face. And this is an intentional
understatement.
May 7, 2008: And Ethiopia returns the favor. Eritrea has become a
haven for guerrilla and resistance groups in Africa, particularly anti-
Ethiopian groups. Now Ethiopia is promoting a "united front" of Eritrean
"resistance groups." Thirteen Eritrean opposition groups have formed
the Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA). The EDA' s stated goal is a
"popular uprising" in Eritrea.
May 6, 2008: Djibouti said that Eritrea soldiers entered Djibouti in late
April and dug trenches. Djibouti accused Eritrea of border violations and
positioning troops near the village of Doumeira.
April 30, 2008: The Ethiopian rebel Ogaden National Liberation Front
(ONLF) is predominantly an ethnic Somali and Sunni Muslim
organization. The ONLF portrays Ethiopia's federal government as
ethnic Tigrayans and Amharans who are predominantly Abyssinian
Christians. This is true, to an extent. However, the ONLF's claim to
represent the goals of all Ogadenis doesn't hold up. Like their fellow
ethnic Somalis in Somalia, clan identity often (usually) trumps politics
and religion. Many Ogaden locals also support the federal government.
For example, the Wayteen and Balaad clans are "anti-ONLF." The
Jedwaq tribe has also fought with ONLF rebels.
STRATEGY PAGE
The UN has –with good reason—focused on the Ethiopia-Eritrea border.
It's a "frozen war" that could reignite. But Eritrea's recent squabble with
Djibouti is another reminder that border disputes plague the Horn of
Africa and, for that matter, most of sub-Saharan Africa. Yemen and
Eritrea both claim the Hanish Islands in the Red Sea. The Hanish
Islands sit in the middle of a major sea lane. Various rebel groups and
Somali clans believe the entire Ogaden region should be part of
Somalia and Eritrea – in order to undermine Ethiopia—supports many of
these groups.
May 13, 2008: Eritrea said that the UN's contention that a complete
removal of peacekeeping and observation teams from the Ethiopia-
Eritrea border is "scaremongering." Eritrea believes the UN favors
Ethiopia in its border dispute.
May 9, 2008: Eritrea denied that it has any border disagreements with
Djibouti, after Djibouti claimed that Eritrea was massing troops along the
Djibouti-Eritrea border, near the village of Doumeira. Attacking Djibouti
would be a big mistake for Eritrea. Both the US and France have military
bases in Djibouti. While the garrisons are small, they can be quickly
reinforced. A fast, flawless Eritrean attack could conceivably take
control of the US and French installations, but executing such an
operation is a huge challenge for the best militaries. Eritrea is not in that
league, particularly when Djibouti's forces are already on alert. US and
French special operations troops in Djibouti, the French Foreign
Legion, US Marines, and US-French airpower compound the problems
an Eritrean offensive would face. And this is an intentional
understatement.
May 7, 2008: And Ethiopia returns the favor. Eritrea has become a
haven for guerrilla and resistance groups in Africa, particularly anti-
Ethiopian groups. Now Ethiopia is promoting a "united front" of Eritrean
"resistance groups." Thirteen Eritrean opposition groups have formed
the Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA). The EDA' s stated goal is a
"popular uprising" in Eritrea.
May 6, 2008: Djibouti said that Eritrea soldiers entered Djibouti in late
April and dug trenches. Djibouti accused Eritrea of border violations and
positioning troops near the village of Doumeira.
April 30, 2008: The Ethiopian rebel Ogaden National Liberation Front
(ONLF) is predominantly an ethnic Somali and Sunni Muslim
organization. The ONLF portrays Ethiopia's federal government as
ethnic Tigrayans and Amharans who are predominantly Abyssinian
Christians. This is true, to an extent. However, the ONLF's claim to
represent the goals of all Ogadenis doesn't hold up. Like their fellow
ethnic Somalis in Somalia, clan identity often (usually) trumps politics
and religion. Many Ogaden locals also support the federal government.
For example, the Wayteen and Balaad clans are "anti-ONLF." The
Jedwaq tribe has also fought with ONLF rebels.
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